Oh, oh, oh, oh, Ohio.

[adderslj]

So, we're down to Ohio. Whomever wins Ohio wins America (a divided one, but still the most powerful nation on Earth). And there's less votes in it than the absentee, postal and provisional votes.

Fun, fun, fun.

Update Mind you, the White House has just announced victory, so maybe not.

Comments

[rdansky.livejournal.com]

That's PR. If they announce themselves the winner, the Democrats look like they're "trying to steal the election". It worked like a charm in 2000. Bush may yet, and most likely will win, but this is strictly a PR move to try to establish public sentiment.

[jfs.livejournal.com]

In the 2000 elections, when Gore was wavering, Bush wisely just acted as if he were already president, going ahead with announcing his cabinet, measuring up the Oval Office and getting new business cards printed.

An early claim at this point could just be sticking a flag in the ground.

At least that's what I'm telling myself.

[adders.livejournal.com]

Looking at the numbers, Kerry needs to swing way over half of the provisionals to get in.

As someone who favours regular changes in government, I'm surprised and not a little scared by the general swing towards the republicans across the country, when you look at the make-up of the two houses.

The Democrats lost the argument bady, and they need to figure out why, and fast.

[predicate.livejournal.com]

In my opinion, the "argument" has been over for a while, and only strong anti-Bush sentiment would carry it. Kerry and the Democratic party, while I voted for him, presented no broader vision to compete with Bush's flawed and dangerous but compelling one.

I'm not terribly optimistic, but I'm pleased that at least the Bush legacy, if he does turn out to win with the provisionals and so on, will be decisive. Enduring decades of "The Bush Doctrine Would've Worked If He'd Had A Chance To Finish The Job" would havepoisoned the well of American discourse for decades, IMO. It will still be hotly debated, but at least a full-two-term-presidency will be there to judge the results by.

[adders.livejournal.com]

My perception, speaking as an utter outsider, is that part of the problem was, despite the huge amount of anti-Bush sentiment, there wasn't enough pro-Kerry sentiment. Over here, Blair won his landslide by combining a massive anti-Tory vote with a strong pro-Blair vote. Kerry only seemed to have half of that.

[wtimmins.livejournal.com]

That's it in a nutshell. And the lack of pro-Kerry sentiment was pretty much Kerry's fault.

Some of it Alex mentions below. Some of it was that Kerry isn't a very charismatic type and had no drama.

If he took a dramatic stand for something, a 'take charge' type of thing... maybe he wouldn't win, but it's that kind of thing that makes people go 'Huh.' Things like 'screw it, gay marriage!'

Yeah, middle america might not have gone for that. But look at the election map. They didn't go for vague middle of the road stuff, neither.

[predicate.livejournal.com]

Agreed. I liked a lot of what Kerry said, but that's mostly because he was focusing on what he wouldn't do -- namely, Bush's mistakes.

It's a strange, strange reversal of the Clinton/Dole race in 96. I was camped solidly in the Republican-Conservative-Christian subculture at the time, and the vibe is almost identical now in the 'progressive-anti-bush' crowd.

If Bush is indeed re-elected I'll be disappointed but not crushed. While it has IMO grave implications internationally, in our country the real battle is in mens' hearts, not polling booths. What kind of people we will be is a decision that will resonate far longer than one election cycle.

[zamiel.livejournal.com]

And it could always turn out well.

The lack of broad, compelling vision is what killed Kerry here in the South, I'm sure of it. Coupled with his war crimes history in an area where 3/4ths of the military bases and personnel are located ... it was a recipe for disaster.

The Average American knows and embraces "hard work and optimism," even if its not real. It is, literally, what this country was founded on. Its a story that sells. Kerry had, literally, nothing to offer that could come close to comparing in an area which considers itself largely the inheritors of the Southern Blue-Collar Legacy.

[predicate.livejournal.com]

Amen.

People live and die by their narratives. While I believe Bush's was a compelling but false narrative, it was still compelling. Kerry focused on deconstructing Bush's narrative -- a dunting task he applied himself to admirably -- but scant work went into crafting something equally compelling.

Sad, since there's so much opportunity to create a positive vision, even in simple terms for those outside the punditry.

[zamiel.livejournal.com]

Actually, I'm not sure Bush's narrative is false.

Let me clarify: there are a group of folks that better hope Bush's narrative is not false. The Arabs. His story goes that all they need is opportunity and support and they, as a culture and as tribal peoples, can be bootstrapped up with love and security and an open hand.

The alternative ... well, I've said it before and I'm sure I will again: America, pushed sufficiently, will drink the blood of its enemies like a beast, and feel no regret after. Dresden. Berlin. Nagasaki. Hieroshima. When iron comes to blood, the ease at which the only major cities in the ME could be turned to rubble or, worse, glass is just a trivial flex of our arms. There is no force on Earth capable of stopping us. Moreover, there's no force on Earth who is capable of cleaning up after but us, either.

That's why this particular plotline is so crucial, and why the one Kerry indirectly proposes is so concerning. With Bush, the hand is out. Its wearing a gauntlet, but its notionally there to help. With Kerry, the hand comes back to our chests ... and he may have no choice but to follow the other arc.

I have no moral compunctions about wiping out 30+million people in the ME, but I find it highly inasthetic.

[predicate.livejournal.com]

Well, that reaises the other question -- how MANY narratives are in play?

I really, after considerable study, believe that the "Freedom for the Middle East" narrative is a false one. Not in the sense that it is impossible, but rather that it is not what Bush's administration is pursuing. Looking at the work that individuals in his administration have been applying themselves to for the past couple of decades, Mideast freedom is IMO less of a priority than estabilishing American centers of influence. There's a subtle but distinct difference.

The extent to which the Arab street and press have been articulating that difference is sobering -- very few people in the ME seem to buy the 'America Wants us Free' argument, given our history and the mixed nature of our present efforts.

I think supporting democratic reform and religious reform in the ME is a VERY worthy goal... but it's far more complex and tricky than our current push.

Anyways. Sorry.Didn't mean to derail Addders' thread with this stuff :)

[zamiel.livejournal.com]

That much is truly simple.

They denigrated the Wal-Mart shopping, Country-music listening, plaid-shirt-wearing berk on the street, Joe Average. At every turn, they've used Joe Average's iconic image as an insult, or a cypher for that which they think is wrong with America. Unfortunately, you can't create Us vs Them in the heartland when both are the same guy.

I've maintained for quite a while that the Presidential election, at least is domestic terms, is a smoke screen. The real place to look for the mood of the nation is Congress. And the Republicans seemed to actually pick up seats in an already strong Congress. Because the Republicans put on plaid and denim shirts, drove a truck out to Wal-Mart, and game a speech while "God Bless the USA" played in the background.

They made a mistake. They pushed too hard to get out the vote. Their supporters always vote, because they feel disenfranchised and voting gives them a synthetic voice. But Joe Average ... he ain't their friend and he doesn't usually feel the need to go vote.

Until they pushed him to.

QED.

[byzantine-ruins.livejournal.com]

They denigrated the Wal-Mart shopping, Country-music listening, plaid-shirt-wearing berk on the street, Joe Average. At every turn, they've used Joe Average's iconic image as an insult, or a cypher for that which they think is wrong with America. Unfortunately, you can't create Us vs Them in the heartland when both are the same guy.

Alex is pretty much dead on in this post and I think the foot-kicking fist-pounding tantrum that followed among Kerry supporters that "those people" would be running things was solid proof of it (and amused me to no end). They're not pissed because they think the country is being run by extremists, they're pissed because the country is being run by extremists they don't agree with.

[bluelang.livejournal.com]

I did all I could to push Ohio in what I think is the right direction!

[magentamom.livejournal.com]

Yes, well, it worked last time. And I have no doubt it will work this time. But I can't argue with the results, really. This is clearly the direction in which more than the half the country wishes to go.

It wasn't just a Bush victory. The Republicans also gained ground in the House and Senate. They will control the Supreme Court for 40 years or more.

The USA wants endless war, unsustainable debt, widespread poverty, an end to the middle class, an erosion of civil liberties, opposition to science and the destruction of the environment. And so we shall have it.

In this, I am glad that I believe God is greater than nations, because I see no real hope for this country for at least the next three decades. This will be the Chinese Century, perhaps, as they are in the best position to take advantage of the situation. But who really knows. As our president says, "History. We'll all be dead." And that's the man that our country wishes to have in charge.